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Commentary w/c 26th January

Given it was the end of November when the Forum last met for it’s first deliberations, I thought it might be worthwhile trawling through the press and seeing where we stood regarding the accuracy of our predictions!

Obviously the economy still dominates.  Our concerns over rising bank losses seem substantiated with the likelihood of even yet more bailouts and failures to come. Opinion seems divided about the true scale of the problem but a figure 0f £25 billion of further support does not appear unlikely: http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business-columnists/Banks-feeling-the-squeeze-as.4893564.jp or http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5549327.ece

In our detailed findings back in November we commented on the likelihood of IMF bail-outs for Britain.  David Cameron was suggesting this too last week forcing a swift reposte from Gordon Brown http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/businessnews/Brown-on-offensive-over-Tory.4910262.jp

 President Obama seems to agree with us with the concept of “green energy” leading us out of recession. Pity that in the UK we’ll miss out! http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5594613.ece

The debate about joining the euro continues but which one the German one or the Italian/Greek/Spanish one? The European Parliament is already facing questions about some countries quitting the euro http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5563166.ece

Job losses unfortunately continue as we predicted, http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/business-news/2009/01/20/jobs-lost-as-empire-direct-collapses-86081-22731578/ with the public sector starting now too to feel the pain too by default as councils shed jobs http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5512651.ece although the private sector is really feeling the pain with pay cuts the new trend http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5563269.ece

Our views  on “clean energy” and the necessity for home-grown technology, innovation and subsequent manufacturing resurgence to be key drivers for the move out of recession seem to be supported here:  http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5505538.ece.

Also our views on the decline of ageism within organisations and instead the benfits that experience and maturity can bring can be can clearly be seen this week.  Flight 1549 in New York speaks for itself http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/17/hudson-plane-crash-pilot-sullenberger .

You might also think our views on the collapse of Premiership football might seem far-fetched given the situation at Manchester City but is this the final blow into the ballon before it bursts? http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2009/jan/18/kaka-manchester-city-milan.  Since then the situation at Manchester Utd would seem more likely with their shirt sponsorship http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gqHRA–buBVM3ma4Rlry5vhdwe-w

What ontrigues me is how back in Oct 2007 several of the original  Forum members accurately predicted the recession which is now official http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5576550.ece If we could do it then why have so many professionals been so wrong in the interim?

Finally in support of bald-headed, maturing Yorkshirmen everywhere I will point you to http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/jan/14/cameron-hague !!!

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Categories: Commentary
  1. davidpim
    January 29, 2009 at 10:15 pm

    Thurs : five things in particular today that I noticed relative to our future projections concern firstly the growing calls for protectionism with the Immingham refinery blockades , secondly our views on oil at $75 , thirdly the rise of civil unrest, Paris today a good example, then the rising pressures on the euro due to the ‘PIIGS’ economies and then finally our long-held views on the property situation and the creation of the slums of the future.

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